Ahead of the Curve
Ahead of the Curve: A Commonsense Guide to Forecasting Business and Market Cycles Joseph H. Ellis,
Publisher: Harvard Business School Press
ISBN: 1591396913
Edition: Hardcover; 2005-10-11
Summary:
How to Read the Signs of Economic Change-Before They Impact Your
Business and Investments Economic and stock-market cycles affect
companies in every industry. Unfortunately, a confusing array of
anecdotal and conflicting indicators often renders it impossible for
managers and investors to see where the economy is heading in time to
take corrective action. Now, a thirty-five-year Wall Street veteran
unveils a new forecasting method that will help managers and
investors understand and predict the economic cycles that control
their businesses and financial fates. In Ahead of the Curve, Joseph
H. Ellis argues that the problem with current forecasting models lies
not in the data, but rather in the lack of a clear framework for
putting the data in context and reading it correctly. The book
explains critical economic indicators in nontechnical language,
identifies and documents the recurring cause-and-effect relationships
that consistently predict turning points in the economy, and provides
the tools managers and investors need to position themselves ahead of
cyclical upturns and downturns. Economic events are not as random and
unpredictable as they seem. This book will help readers recognize and
react to signs of change that their rivals don't see-and win a
sizeable competitive advantage.
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